BC Commercial Leading Indicator Moves Higher

Vancouver, BC – November 29, 2011. The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) increased 1.1 points to 109.8 in the third quarter of 2011, reversing the downward trend observed in the first half of the year. The trend in the CLI, a more reliable indicator of future activity, points to a flattening out of commercial real estate activity over the following two to four quarters.

The strong rebound in the CLI in the third quarter was driven largely by strong manufacturing activity and job growth. Given the heightened risk environment in financial markets, the CLI's financial component (composed of risk-spreads and REIT index returns) made a negative, albeit small, contribution to the index for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2008.

The CLI peaked at a level of 116.1 in the second quarter of 2007 before the onset of the financial crisis pushed it to 98.1 in the first half of 2009. The CLI has since recovered 95 per cent of its previous peak level.

"A strong rebound in the BC manufacturing sector lead the CLI higher last quarter," said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. "However, rising tension in financial markets and slowing global economic growth may create significant headwinds in coming months."

Home Sales Climb Higher Outside Vancouver

Vancouver, BC – November 15, 2011. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential unit sales in the province rose 6.5 per cent to 5,865 units in October compared to the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price was up 2.6 per cent to $535,695 last month compared to October 2010.

"BC home sales rose three per cent in October compared to September on a seasonally adjusted basis," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "While consumer demand in Vancouver edged lower last month on a year-overyear basis, strong increases were recorded in the Fraser Valley, Kamloops, Kootenay, the North and on Vancouver Island."

"Total active residential listings in the province declined by 3,360 units in October from September. However, active listings were up 6.9 per cent from October 2011," added Muir. "Market conditions remained slightly in favour of home buyers last month."

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 16.8 per cent to $38 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales increased 3.5 per cent to 66,922 units, while the average MLS® residential price rose 12.9 per cent to $566,925 over the same period.

 

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